Wednesday, March 7, 2012

NEWS, NOW FORECASTS and STRATEGY on the ASX200 and CORN

From now the Blog offers indications also on the ASX200 Australian Index and on the CORN, where a new PFS has been created on this Commodity, and the results are great, better than on the S&P500! Next days there will be available a yearly boulletin on Corn and S&P500, for the people that are interested to know in advance dates and future possible trends, or for people that are not able to follow the market day by day.

For now I leave you at the results of the test of the PFS on the CORN, results that have surprised also me!

The studies on the Corn have been positives. My test was on the years between 2005-2011, so I tested 7 years.

I’m continuing to study it, with new possible solutions to improve the strategy and the forecast on this market.

What I did is to use the PFS to know in advance the exact data where buy or sell the Corn. I didn’t look at any strategy, price or other studies. I did a simple thing: I bought when the PFS indicated a Low and I sold when the PFS indicate a High.

I tried 2 different ways. A strategy with more trades, to take advance of any evident swing of the PFS and a strategy where I did few trades, only to follow the main trend, not more than 5 or 6 trades per year.

Well, these are the results:


WITH MORE TRADES:

2011: +307 points circa / 10 trades.

2010: +416 points circa / 11 trades.

2009: +83 points circa / 9 trades.

2008: +460 points circa / 8 trades.

2007: +60 points circa / 13 trades.

2006: +31 points circa / 6 trades.

2005: +113 points circa / 14 trades.


WITH FEW TRADES:

2011: +364 points circa / 6 trades

2010: +349 points circa / 6 trades

2009: +88 points circa / 4 trades

2008: +523 points circa / 4 trades

2007: +131 points circa / 4 trades

2006: -54 points circa / 3 trades

2005: +98 points circa / 5 trades


To analyse these results, you need to think that in 2005, 2006, and 2007 the prices were lower, around 190-400 points, for this reason the gains/loses are smaller. In 2009 the range on the price was narrow, with a low volatility than the other years.

I think that it is evident that there is a connection with my cycles and the Corn. We can see very high profit using only a forecasting model, and only in one year, with few trades, we see a lost.

The year 2006 was really strange. The PFS was working perfectly until 15 September, with a new very strong energy changes the path of the Cron, suddenly! Look the chart where there are the dates of the trades indicated by the PFS.



You can see that the trades were very good but there is one trade that was very very bad. This is exceptional, but always it can happen, of course, and we, as traders, have to be aware of this.

Now we can look at the 2011 to understand that in this work there is no stop-loss, only a swing forecast. We can take a SHORT position and know that we will buy 2 months later, but it can happen that after 1 month we are losing a lot of points, to see then that after 2 months market is fallen. Look the 6 trades of the 2011:



You can see that all the trades, AT THE END, were good trades, but then you can manage the trade how do you prefer. You can use this system without any price strategy, statistic at the moment shows that it works very well. BUT you must be aware that in a trade, for example when we buy in January 2011, market go up in February, in gain, but then it fall in March, in loss, and then move up, returning in gain in April, where the PFS suggest to close the trade, with a good profit. You can decide how use this study that statistically seems to work very well, but you must to be wise, because you know that often when we touch a easy system that works, than it stops to work.


I will use it like a swing forecaster, I will buy or sell when it will advice me, and sometime I will look also at possible important prices. Of course I will not bet a lot of money in this system, because you can see that it is a mid-term study, not a daily or intraday study, where the risk is always under control. Then, if you want, you can use key prices to follow the trend.

At the moment, like you know, the PFS indicated to buy in the weekend of 24-27 February, and it is going absolutely well, I’m in profit now of 20 points circa.

This is my personal opinion, but I think that I will have big satisfactions to trade the Corn looking how it worked in the past with the PFS. I need only patience and discipline, like always.


To finish, I want show you the PFS 2008 and the Corn. This has been a unbelievable year for the PFS… look….