After many years in the Market, what I see is always the same. We see so many people explaining what happened, but hardly what is happening, very rare what will happen. And I see NOW so many people explaining why on the 11th of February we saw a Low in Stocks and Crude Oil, or why T-Bonds topped on the same day. It is hard to find someone that on the same day was able to send an analysis that was clearly saying what was about to happen in terms of statistics (if someone doesn't speak in these terms, be careful, I would not trust him). We did it, and we shared with you weeks ago what we said to our subscribers on the 11th of February, you can download it here.
I admit I'm surprised to see how people prefer to follow news, free analysis and poor material to take trading and investment decisions instead of trying to learn listening to who shows real trades and strategies. Living in London I have learnt that actually Marketing is the most important thing to sell a product, and not the product itself. It is easier to sell hope than patience. And that's why it is always the same, people never learn, they just hope, and this seems endless.
I try! I really try to open the eyes to the people, because trading is also a matter of understanding the truth behind what we think, what we hope, and often also what we are. But honestly most of my subscribers are already people aware of what trading is, they understand it, and for this reason they follow my system since 2012, and between them there are a few big Banks as well.
Why my analysis is so useful to them? First, I think I don't pretend to be always right, I'm aware I can make a wrong forecast, and that's why I always plan a precise strategy. This is the thing that makes an analysis useful, the strategy. Unfortunately many people think that forecasts or news are the most important things, but evidence shows this is wrong! But as I said before, it is easier to follow a forecast than a strategy. The strategy is demanding, it takes discipline, time... a forecast needs just hope.
Summiing up, if you are a trader, or an investor, the biggest advice I can give is to follow analysis of who use numbers, track records, statistics. Do you understand that trading is just a matter of statistics? I use forecasts, cycles, you see I made important calls, I forecast every important grains trend of the last 2 years, I said 8 months in advance that October 2015 was a buy opportunity, that the January Crash (that I didn't forecast) was fake and again just a new buy opportunity, but this is not trading! Behind that there must be always a strategy to open and close positions. If you want to make money with news and forecast, I would be glad to dare you :p
Funny story, because sometimes I'm such a little bastard, this is what I sent to my subscribers exactly on the 7th of February 2016:
There are so many bad news, a negative sentiment here around, it is like everyone is expecting a new imminent crash and a new bear Market.
Here is one example:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbseconomists (it says we are at the same situation of 2008, the difference is that in 2008 no one was expecting what happened then, and now everyone is expecting the worst; and notice that the article was written on the 12th of January, when the Market already crashed).
At the moment I don’t agree with this view, but we never know, and for this reason we keep using a price strategy, so we can protect the position if I’m wrong... I think we need a lot of patience, even because the Market is quite choppy, hard to handle. But, how can I say… I’m not expecting another downtrend or crash, that’s it. I can be wrong and we have to be prepared to it, but I’m also prepared to make good profits if I’m right.
This is the evidence of how this world is ridiculous and paradoxal, how the supposed gurus and the experts know literally NOTHING, and normal people like me know much more than them. It is up to you who you want to listen. Of course, you don't have to pay them, and you have to pay my studies, but if you are good in math it should not be hard to understand what it is worth to do.
In the next newsletters we will see how the Automated System is going, and we will have a look at Live Cattle, hironically the forecast is wrong at the moment (hironically because I was supposed to use this forecast to promote our work), but we protected the position with a precise strategy and now we are SHORT from 140.500.
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
What does make an analysis really useful?
Posted by Daniele Prandelli at 6:22 AM