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Monday, March 7, 2011

My forecast in the last 2 weeks

To see how are going in the last 2 weeks my forecast, I think that the best way is to show you the chart that I Posted in the 19-20 February weekend, that indicate my forecast and the Push of the PFS:
Now we look what did the S&P500 Index:
The forecast permit us to foresee the strong descent started in 22th February and the rally that start in 24th February.
At the beginning of the week I say that was probabe to have a good buy opportunity at the end of the week.
In the 24th FebruaryPost I said:
...today 24th February it can be the right day to see a Low and a rally. This because we hit a important target at 1302 yesterday. But every time wait confirmation of the price, and if you can, wait the open of the Index.

STRATEGY

PFS looked for a little High in 20th February, and it could be the right day to entry short (Friday 18 or Monday 21).

Now the cycle are looking down, and also the PFS, with a possible low around 24-28 February.

At the moment I’m FLAT, waiting to entry LONG. PFS show that start a up push in this weekend.

What I think is stupid to do. (this is what I think, it is not the True!)

I think it’s stupid entry LONG in this market phase if we have not some price confirmation. The confirmation we have above 1296 +/- 1 point. If we go under it, it’s better wait that it return above, because there is the risk to see a down acceleration under this level.

The price that I give at 1296 +/- 1 point was my key price to enter LONG becouse I was waiting a Low and a successive rally. The Market break down my lever for 2 point, but then it return above it with force, and this, like I say in the post, was the signal to enter LONG. Look the intraday chart:
Like every time, using our common sense, indications from the prices and the indications from the time permit us to do a great work in the last 2 weeks. Always aware that we can do a mistake, but thanks to the study of the price we can insert intelligent stop-loss, protecting immediatly our capital in case of error.

Sorry for my English :)