Wednesday, September 28, 2011

SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER SEPTEMBER...




It is passed long time from my last Post, I will try to make up for the lost time showing the precise strategy of September.

I leave you in last July. In August I was in India, so I was not able to look the maket. I give a forecast that it gave a descent in the first days of August, but I was not expecting a crash. I give a possible low in August 9-10, and it is the actual lower low (August 9). But I think we will test or break it in the next 1-2 months. In my private Blog I don't lost money during the crash, becouse I advice to not trade. Volatility too much High, hard contitions to manage the trade, strong gaps.
But now we will see how are going September, where I re-start my work after my trip in India.

First trade following my forecast was in September 6. The perfection of this trade help us, but not every time is so easy. This is what I write in the post September 6:

I gave the forecast in the last 2 posts.
Yesterday market was closed, but we saw how the break below 1154 in the Future pushed market down.
I'm waiting a brief rally, and then a new descent. Key price area to take Long position is at 1154-1158.
Interesting also is 1140-1143 points for a rally. If market will touch 1140-1141 points I will enter Long with confirmations above 1143 points, with 4 points stop-loss maximum, or I will wait market above 1154-1158 points.
You can see the chart (above) where the Low was 1140.13. So I bought at 1143 and I put a stop-loss under 1139. A trade without pain. A lot of word are spent in the posts, also in my posts, but the attention must remain on the strategy from the prices. The price is the King. He will decide if you will gain or not.

You can understand how I work from this next post, September 7:

Yesterday we saw how price strategy and forecast work together. A rally was expected, so we wait a price confirmation to trade following the forecast. Hence, yesterday market did a Low at 1140, and then the buy start when market break up 1143 points, like from yesterday instructions, with a stop of 4 points. Now index is at 1180, +37 points in one day. Volatility is dangerous, but also precious if you guess the direction. Now I follow the trend and I put a stop-profit under area 1159, so if market start to fall, I will gain 15 points from ma Long trade. 1159 is a key price for today. Another key price at 1187 points, where I will close another part of my trade, leaving the rest Long. I want close soon this trade becouse from next week I want concentrate my effort to enter SHORT. 1190-1191 is also a mid term price area, but I think we will break this level to attain higher prices.
Here you can see the strategy of the trade. Not too much words, charts.... but numbers. My Blog is for take profit, and this mean to be aware that market can do anything he want, so the strategy become fundamental after a good trade where we are in profit following the forecast.

Next day, September 8, I decide to close all with the Future at 1195 (Index S&P500 at 1197) becouse I was waiting a pullback. And this is what's happened. Here the post of September 8:

I close now (Future Sept at 1195) all my Long trade, and I wait next week for a possible new descent. I exit now becouse my study indicate a possible pause of this up push from today. Also market ran 55 points in only 2 days, and it is no bad. At 1190-1191 there is a interesting mid term price. Under it there is, at 1187.5, a key price. Under this level it's better remain in pause without Long positions. Above we find 1206.4, that it's a interesting key price. At the moment my prefered scenario is to see higher price next week where we can try a Short trade. Last trade was very good, we start very well the work after the holydays, but attention, use always patience.
Market stop his run and fall like I forecasted, and we arrive at September 12. Indications are clear: I'm waiting a rally but only the price will give me the signal to enter the market, and this signal is above 1146 points. Market will stay around 1146 point in this day, and I try 2 trade in lost before I see a third break above this level and market start to run up, and I was of course in the market. Read with attention the post of September 12, this is a clear strategy indication following the forecast of a rally:

September 12-14 seems to be a important time window, and my models are waiting a possible rally in these days, so it's possible that we will see a low. Of course I was not waiting a descent so strong, but I hope that now you understood: this is not a problem. Trading is a speculative activity. Doesn't matter if it fall less or more, important is to be in the market when we are right and to be Flat when we are not right. Easy. Impossible now is to follow all the movements, too much risk. This morning USA wake up at -1,5%, we need to be cautious. Volatility is High, attention. There are different key prices: at 1122-1123 points there is a interesting key price with a mid term price. If market hit it, it's possible to trade Long with trend confirmations above it. Stop loss under it. At 1118 there is also a mid term price that can be a good support. Above we find another key price at 1146. At 1129 there is a price that, not precise, statistically represent a good up push for the market. This morning Future hit this area. My strategy remain for a Long trade above 1129, or above 1122-1123 using the key price. At 1129 I have not a precise key price, for this reason I will enter Long only if I will see a trend up confirmation ( 2 or 5 minutes chart). Of course I will not trade if market doesn't hit these prices. This is my discipline, I'm not in a hurry. In case of rally, I will use 1146 key prices to enter Long, with confirmation above it. It is not sure that will be today the perfect day to enter Long, it's possible we must wait tomorrow. If market continue to fall, it's possible to try a SHORT trade under 1122 after break down confirmation, with stop above this area.
The condition verified is highlighted, and if you check the chart, the rally start in September 12, and we was in the market.

In Sempteber 13 market arrive to hit 1170 points. Here I give the indication to exit if market go under 1167.5 (+20 points in profit) and try to enter Short with a stop-loss above this area. Market break down 1167.5 but then it return above it and we lost 2 points. This is my work. Little loss and leave to run the gain.

Now we pay attention at the post of September 15 becouse it is very important. From some day I'm saying that I'm waiting a new descent, underlineing that after September 19 I see a strong down push. But I'm not sure of the perfect day to enter Short, so I check the key prices in case of important breaks. September 15 I show how I tryed to enter short in 2 situantions but with 2 loss. This 2 loss are very lettle. This shows how is possible to trade with little stop-loss with my key prices. I give my key prices every day. This is the post of September 15 with the chart:

Yesterday market continued the rally. I tryed 2 Short trade at 1170.5 and at 1192, my 2 key prices. But all closed with little loss, no pain. I'm happy to show the chart of yesterday with my key price. You can see that we lost no more than 3 points. This is what mean to cut your loss. For this volatility I would advice to exit with some profit when you are gaining 3-4 points, so if the market stop you, you can exit with no loss. I'm waiting a imminent descent, so I wait some break down of my key price to enter Short. Important key price at 1171-1172, but also 1193 is a good key price, but I will use it only after good confirmation. At 1191 there are a good mid term price. I think that we are very near the High, in this actual price area. If market shoud continue to go up, I don't think it will run very much. So I wait some break down to enter Short. Above we find 1216-1216.5 key price.
Brief comment in September 16, but we will see firsts profits of this forecast:

There are no news. I remain Flat. Prices to enter short are 1194 (with mid term prices at 1191) and 1217-1218.5. If we hit this last price I will enter short with Stop-Loss above it. In this area there are also important mid term prices. I'm waiting a descent that should start today or Monday.
Market will do a High at 1220.06, so I enter Short when market return under 1217, like my reader know, with stop-loss above the High. This trade will give us a first profit in this day, where I advise to close 1/3 of the trade with a 10 points in gain.

September 19, Monday, there is a very important update, and here you can understand how is important the strategy to take profit from the market:

I'm waiting a confirmation of a break under 1190. If it should not happen, I put a stop-profit if I see confirmation of a break up above key price 1196.4. But I will re-enter Short if market return under this level.
The market will be not able to confirm a break under 1190 points, so I decide with wisdom to close my trade when market return above 1197 points, with a gain of 19 points (chart above). Next day market will go up, and it will do a double High. But I'm not happy, my analisys say me that market should go down.
Here the important September 20 Post:

Situation presents some doubt with the forecast. Indications for a general down trend until October/November remain open. The doubt is to see another brief up push until next week. We will see if the mid term price at 1216-1220 will be able to stop this up push. I was waiting a continuation of the descent, but yesterday we saw that the mid term price at 1190-1191 have supported the market, and this push me to take the decision to exit above the key price 1196.4. Now we remain Flat waiting the key prices. Price will reveal us the direction to follow. More important key prices today are 1179 and 1224.3. This last, with the mid term price at 1226.7, is a very good price reference. If we arrive to touch it, we can enter short in case of resistence, or enter Long in case of a break up. I want trade in the down side becouse my studies say me that the general trend is down. There are key prices (but not strong) at 1197.2 and 1219.5. I will use these price to enter Short with a little stop-loss above they. Important is to enter only after confirmations of a trend into action under these prices.
Needless to say the High is been 1220 points, and when I see a weakness looking a intraday chart after we touch this level (my key price was 1219.5) I entered Short with a stop-loss above the High. Market start to fall, and in a strong way. The days after we manage the trade following the downtrend, where at the end I closed all this trade at 1133 Index points, from 1217-1218. I can say that this was not a bad trade! :)

In these days the situation is this: September 23, Friday I close all at 1133 becouse I was waiting a brief rally. We see the forecasted rally, I tryed to take another short trade in Monday with 2 trade in loss, 3 points lost for every trade. This is not so painful in reason that the week before we gain 80 points. And now... we will see.

See you

Daniele