After the strong drop of January, let me share with you what we said in our
Weekly Report
On the 16th of January I sent this study to the subscribers:
2116-1858=258 (square of 16 is 256, interesting…)
The previous drop from May 2015 to August 2015 is 266 points:
2133-1867=266
Since the last yearly uptrend started, in 2009, we have seen only one very big drop, in 2011; that movement started in July, the S&P500 did a High at 1356, and a Low in August at 1101:
1356-1101=255
In October we see a lower level, just one day under the August Low, in this case at 1075:
1356-1075=281
In 2007 we see a High in December at 1523 and a sharp decline started, with a Low in January at 1274 and then in March at 1257:
1523-1274=249
1529-1257=266
The biggest drop, in terms of points, of the S&P500 before the year 2000 is in 1998, with a High at 1190 in July and a Low in September at 940 and in October at 923:
1190-940=250
1190-923=267
You see the numbers? 258-266-255-281-249-266-250-267, they were often movements where the Market did a very important change in trend (have you read the original courses of Gann? There are many pages where he notes the number of points or dollars of every swing, quite boring actually, I know, but still…). And often we can see also a usual pattern: the movement last for 2 months, no more than that, and often we see a double Low around the same level 1 or 2 months later. Every movement bigger than this range (250-280) in the last 20 years was the beginning of a new real downtrend. The biggest crashes without beginning a new downtrend have always been between these numbers. Over these numbers something even worst was coming.
|
CONCLUSION
How do you think we used our study? Obviously buying in area 1850 where we had the signal to be LONG above it! On the 20th of January we have seen a scaring movement under 1850 points, but it was only an intraday movement, not even closing under it, that was the strong signal for us to buy. Look at the Market right now:
|
No comments:
Post a Comment